Domestic dynamics of crop production in response to international food trade: evidence from soybean imports in China

ABSTRACT

International food trade plays an important role in food security, but little research has been devoted to studying crop dynamics in importing countries caused by trade. We studied the spatiotemporal patterns of soybean planting area in China (the largest soybean importing country) in response to soybean imports. The results show how the soybean planting area from 1980 to 2012 in China is dominated by two temporal patterns, both of which first increased, then decreased, with an 8-year time lag. The first increasing-decreasing pattern is affected by increasing soybean imports, and the second increasing-decreasing pattern is driven by decreasing domestic soybean profits. The results also show spatially distinct spatial patterns: soybean planting area decreased in southeastern China while it increased in northwestern China. Our analysis of soybean planting area helps China and other food-importing countries understand spatiotemporal responses of domestic agricultural cultivations caused by international food trade and agricultural pollution management.