突出洪灾事件对新疆潜在气候转型的响应

从新疆近250年来的水文突出事件——洪灾的分析人手，探讨了其与新近提出的可能气候转型期降水变化的联系。结果表明，小冰期末以来新疆存在5个比较明显的重大洪灾时段。每一个时段基本上都对应着降水偏多时期，同时也对应着比较明显的气候转折期，前两次对应气温下降降水减少期，后三次对应气温升高降水增多期。20世纪80年代中期前后，洪灾灾情差异显著。20世纪80年代中期以来新，疆洪水及其灾害事件对气候(降水)变化响应较明显，表现出随着降水的增加，洪灾灾情加重、主要河流洪水洪峰流量突破历史极值的情况。这为气候转型观点的成立提供了一定的依据，并且还初步印证了前人有关气候转型初期自然灾害频发和洪水量级增大的论断。

Response of extreme flood events to potential climate change from warm-dry to warm-wet in Xinjiang

Based on the historical flood disaster records and meteorological data, this paper aims at to outline a relationship between the flood disasters and the climatic variables, precipitation and temperature in Xinjiang. Five periods in which extreme flood disasters occurred frequently can be identified since the little ice age. Every period is roughly corresponding to the climatic stage with relatively plentiful precipitation and the climatic pattern transition. Former two disaster periods are corresponding to the climatic transition from higher temperature and precipitation to lower temperature and precipitation, but later three disaster periods correspond to that from lower temperature and precipitation to higher temperature and precipitation. Careful calculation of the correlation coefficients between the time series of flood disasters and the precipitation from 1961 to 1997 in Xinjiang are conducted. It is found that the time series of the flood damaged area changes with the variation of the precipitation in Xinjiang since 1960s. After the middle of 1980s, especially, the disaster damages become more serious and the flood peaks break through the historical extremes. These results, hence, can be used as the strong proof for the viewpoint that climate pattern has been changing from warm dry to warm wet in Xinjiang since the middle of 1980s, and can be employed to confirm the arguments on that natural disasters will frequently occur and flood behavior will abruptly shift during the climate pattern transition.