中国环境污染与经济增长的实证研究

本文基于我国1981-2007年环境污染与经济增长的相关数据,利用时间序列研究方法对我国EKC进行实证研究,说明建立EKC模型可能存在的问题。为弥补EKC模型中环境不影响经济的假设与变量难以量化的不足,运用VAR模型研究二者的动态关系。EKC研究结果表明:EKC是一种客观现象,而不是一般规律;与人们生产生活关系密切的污染物更有可能出现EKC特征。VAR脉冲响应和方差分解的动态分析结果与二者相互作用机理相符:一方面我国经济增长通过规模效应、结构效应、技术效应等因素影响环境;一方面随着人们环境质量需求弹性的增加,政府对环境质量的重视,环境对企业生产行为的约束机制正逐步形成,但可能由于人们通过自身消费影响产出的作用有限和环境政策实施存在滞后性等原因,这种机制的形成存在一定滞后。

Empirical Research on Environmental Pollution and Economic Growth in China

Based on the data of China's environmental pollution and economic growth in the period of 1981-2007, this article adopted methods of time series to research the Environmental Kuznetz Curve (EKC) of China, and showed the problems in the EKC model. In order to compensate the hypothesis in EKC model that environment does not influence economy, and the defect that the variables in EKC model are difficult to estimate, the article studied their dynamic relation between environmental pollution and economic grouth with VAR model. The empirical conclusions of EKC indicated that the EKC was only an objective phenomenon, not a general law, and that the pollutions having close relations with movements of people's production and living, are more likely to have the characters of EKC. The empirical conclusions of impulse response and variance decomposition correspond with the theories on their interactive mechanism: On the one hand, through the effects of economic scale, structure, technique and other factors, economic growth influences environment. On the other hand, with the increase of people's environmental demand elasticity, the government pays more attention to the environmental protection, and the mechanism that confines the productional behaviors of enterprises has been gradually taking shape, but due to the limit of productional effects caused by consuming and the lag of environmental policies, the mechanism lags in a certain degree.