Use of the Dynamic Model `MAGIC' to Predict Recovery Following Implementation of the Gothenburg Protocol

Reduction of sulphur deposition causesrecovery of acidified surface waters. Processes in thecatchment delay recovery. The acidification model MAGICwas applied to the Vikedal and Tovdal rivers in southernNorway. Response in water chemsitry is delayed by 10–20 yr. The delay is due to release of old sulphate atVikedal and cation exchange at Tovdal. Assuming that theGothenburg protocol is fully implemented by the year2010, much of the predicted increase of ANC will occur inthe next 10 yr with a levelling off by about 2040. Ifnitrogen leaching increases in the future, however,recovery of ANC will not be as rapid, nor as complete.Critical load for acidity calculated by steady-statemodels is confirmed by the MAGIC predictions. Futurerequirement for mitigation measures such as liming willdecrease in the future as acid deposition decreases. Bythe year 2046 the liming requirement will be reduced byabout 45% at Vikedal and 65% at Tovdal. One of the mainpurposes of the Norwegian national monitoring programmeis to provide documentation of changes in environmentalquality due to long-range transported air pollutants.Modelling applications such as this clearly show that thedata fill this purpose.