应用极值理论研究台湾和华东地区中强地震活动的相关性

运用极值分布理论对1970～1999年间台湾和华东地区的地震资料进行统计性研究,得出其地震相应震级的复发周期[T(M)]、理论发震次数(η)和华东地区中强地震的发震概率阈值(PO)。通过对T(M)的同比分析,发现两地中强地震存在着较好的相关性。用以上研究的结果对华东地区5级以上地震的发震概率、发震时间和地震强度进行综合判定,效果较好。

A study of the correlation between moderate earthquakes in Taiwan and in East China region using extreme-value theory

A statistical study is made of the data of earthquakes in Taiwan and in East China between 1970～1999 using extreme value theory. As a result, the recurrence periods , the theoretical frequences (n) for earthquakes of various magnitudes as well as the thresholds of the probability of earthquake occurrences (P0) for moderate earthquakes in East China region are obtained. Based on a comparative analysis of the T(M), it is found that rather good correlation exists between the moderate earthquakes in the two regions. A combined a posterior estimation is made of the probabilities of earthquake occurrence, the origin times and the magnitudes for the earthquakes with magnitude above 5 in the East China region in this period using the results of the above mentioned study and rather good results are obtained.