Low-carbon transitions in world regions: comparison of technological mitigation potential and costs in 2020 and 2030 through bottom-up analyses |
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Authors: | Tatsuya Hanaoka Mikiko Kainuma |
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Institution: | (1) Center for Social and Environmental Systems, National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506, Japan |
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Abstract: | This study focuses on low-carbon transitions in the mid-term and analyzes mitigation potentials of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions
in 2020 and 2030 in a comparison based on bottom-up-type models. The study provides in-depth analyses of technological mitigation
potentials and costs by sector and analyzes marginal abatement cost (MAC) curves from 0 to 200 US $/tCO2 eq in major countries. An advantage of this study is that the technological feasibility of reducing GHG emissions is identified
explicitly through looking at distinct technological options. However, the results of MAC curves using the bottom-up approach
vary widely according to region and model due to the various differing assumptions. Thus, this study focuses on some comparable
variables in order to analyze the differences between MAC curves. For example, reduction ratios relative to 2005 in Annex
I range from 9 % to 31 % and 17 % to 34 % at 50 US $/tCO2 eq in major countries. An advantage of this study is that the technological feasibility of reducing GHG emissions is identified
explicitly through looking at distinct technological options. However, the results of MAC curves using the bottom-up approach
vary widely according to region and model due to the various differing assumptions. Thus, this study focuses on some comparable
variables in order to analyze the differences between MAC curves. For example, reduction ratios relative to 2005 in Annex
I range from 9 % to 31 % and 17 % to 34 % at 50 US /tCO2 eq in 2020 and 2030, respectively. In China and India, results of GHG emissions relative to 2005 vary very widely due to
the difference in baseline emissions as well as the diffusion rate of mitigation technologies. Future portfolios of advanced
technologies and energy resources, especially nuclear and renewable energies, are the most prominent reasons for the difference
in MAC curves. Transitions toward a low-carbon society are not in line with current trends, and will require drastic GHG reductions,
hence it is important to discuss how to overcome various existing barriers such as energy security constraints and technological
restrictions. |
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