利用ARIMA(自回归移动平均)模型对跑道侵入事件的分析及预测

综合运用具有相当精度的时间序列分析方法,建立美国民航运输安全中的机场跑道侵入的AR IMA(自回归移动平均)模型,克服了样本空间总是有限带来的不足,揭示出民航跑道侵入的动态变化规律,并对未来美国民航跑道侵入事故发生次数进行较准确的预测,为我国民航部门科学地制定飞行计划、人员培训、提高安全管理水平,提供可靠的依据。

Analysis and Prediction of Runway Incursion Events Base on ARIMA Model

By synthetically employing the time series analytical method with comparative accuracy,an ARIMA(Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model) model for the runway incursion in America civil aviation transport was set up,which overcome the shortages of limited sample space.This model can not only reveal the dynamic changing laws of runway incursion and provide an accurate prediction for the runway incursion of America in future,it may also provide reliable basis for China's civil aviation departments to scientifically make a flight plan and staff training and improve their safety management level.