| BP网络马尔可夫模型的水质预测研究——基于灰色关联分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 冯民权,邢肖鹏,薛鹏松.BP网络马尔可夫模型的水质预测研究——基于灰色关联分析[J].自然灾害学报,2011(5). |
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| 作者姓名： | 冯民权 邢肖鹏 薛鹏松 |
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| 作者单位： | 西安理工大学西北水资源与环境生态教育部重点实验室; |
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| 基金项目： | 山西省水利厅科技计划基金项目(106-231073) |
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| 摘 要： | 根据汾河水质的实际情况,应用BP网络马尔可夫模型对水质进行预测。采用拉依达准则剔除样本集异常数据,结合水质污染的实际情况,以COD为参考序列,应用灰色关联度对常规指标进行分析,确定BP网络的输入节点。在BP网络预测结果的基础上采用马尔可夫链对残差序列进行修正。经过关联度分析,确定氨氮、挥发酚、水温、BOD5及COD自身作为BP网络的输入节点,解决了多变量复杂系统建模过程中BP网络输入节点无法自动寻优的问题,使得BP网络的预测结果更加符合实际。对预测误差较大的样本采用马尔可夫修正误差残值,使得相对误差从-15.43%改善到了-15%,修正值更接近于实测值。BP网络马尔可夫模型,结合了BP网络和马尔可夫的优点,提高了预测的精度。
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| 关 键 词： | BP网络 灰色关联度分析 马尔可夫链 水质预测 |
Water quality prediction using BP network and Markov model:based on grey incidence analysis |
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| FENG Min-quan,XING Xiao-peng,XUE Peng-song.Water quality prediction using BP network and Markov model:based on grey incidence analysis[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2011(5). |
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| Authors: | FENG Min-quan XING Xiao-peng XUE Peng-song |
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| Institution: | FENG Min-quan,XING Xiao-peng,XUE Peng-song (Key Laboratory of Northwest Water Resources and Environmental Ecology of Ministry of Education,Xi'an University of Technology,Xi'an 710048,China) |
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| Abstract: | According to actual situation of water quality in Fenhe River,BP network and Markov model was used for water quality prediction.The Pauta rule was adopted to eliminate abnormal data,and combined the actual situation of water pollution,the COD was taken as reference sequence to carry out the grey incidence analysis of general parameters to confirm input nodes of BP network,Markov chain was used to modify the residual series based on BP network prediction.NH3-N,Volatile Phenol,water temperature,BOD5 and COD w... |
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| Keywords: | BP network grey relational analysis markov chain water quality prediction |
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