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新疆喀什地区地震活动趋势——基于可公度方法的研究
引用本文:闫军辉,延军平.新疆喀什地区地震活动趋势——基于可公度方法的研究[J].自然灾害学报,2011(6).
作者姓名:闫军辉  延军平
作者单位:陕西师范大学旅游与环境学院;
基金项目:教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目(04JZD00010)
摘    要:新疆喀什地区是我国地震活动频繁的区域之一,且震级高,烈度大。应用三元、四元、五元可公度方法,对新疆近100年来6.5级以上的地震进行分析得到:未来10年内,喀什地区2013年前后发生≥6.5级地震的可能性很大。

关 键 词:可公度  地震趋势  喀什地区  

Trend of seismicity in Kashi area of Xinjiang:a commensurability-based research
YAN Jun-hui,YAN Jun-ping.Trend of seismicity in Kashi area of Xinjiang:a commensurability-based research[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2011(6).
Authors:YAN Jun-hui  YAN Jun-ping
Institution:YAN Jun-hui,YAN Jun-ping (College of Tourism and Environment Sciences,Shaanxi Normal University,Xi'an 710062,China)
Abstract:Kashi area of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region is one of China's frequent seismicity regions,with high magnitude and large intensity.Based on the method of ternary,quaternary and quintuple commensurability,this paper analyses the earthquakes whose magnitude is more than 6.5 in nearly 100 years.The results shows that in the next 10 years,before and after the year 2013,an earthquake with magnitude equal to or more than 6.5 is more likely to happen.
Keywords:commensurability  seismicity trend  Kashi area  
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