成渝经济区土地利用变化特征与驱动力分析

以成渝经济区2000年、2005年、2010年3个时期的土地利用数据为基础，应用RS和GIS技术，提取成渝经济区各种土地利用类型数量、土地利用类型动态度及土地利用转移矩阵，分析2000—2010年成渝经济区土地利用变化数量及转移特征；应用偏最小二乘回归方法，结合社会经济数据，构建土地利用变化的偏最小二乘回归模型，分析成渝经济区土地利用变化驱动力。结果表明，研究期间成渝经济区人工表面、林地和耕地面积变化十分显著，其中，人工表面面积增加2 337.03 km²，林地面积增加2 719.15 km²，耕地面积减少5 840.27 km²，耕地主要转换为林地和人工表面；人口压力的加剧是成渝经济区土地利用变化的最主要驱动因素，社会经济快速发展为次强驱动因素，国家调控政策的实施对土地利用变化也具有重要的驱动作用。

Analysis on Characteristics and Driving Force of Land Use Change in Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Zone

Based on the land use change data of Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Zone (CCEZ) in 2000, 2005 and 2010, and combined with RS and GIS methods, the information of land use quantity of each type, land use dynamic degree and land use conversion matrix was extracted, and the land use change quantity and conversion characteristics during 2000 to 2010 analyzed. Combined with the data of social-economic statistical data, the partial least squares regression model of land use change was built, and the driving forces of land use change of CCEZ analyzed. The result showed significant changes emerged in structured land, forest land and farm land, among which structured land increased by 2 337.03 km2, the forest land increased by 2 719.15 km2, whereas the farm land reduced by 5 840.27 km2. The farm land was mostly changed to forest land and structured land. The increasing population pressure is the major driving force of land use change in CCEZ, the rapid development of social economy is the subordinate driving force, and the macro-control and policy implementation of country also plays an important role in land use change.