基于成本收益分析的油气管道风险控制决策过程

为实现对油气管道风险的有效控制,结合油气管道的特点,基于成本收益分析方法改进风险控制决策过程。首先,确定风险控制目标,对所建议的措施进行初步筛选,并根据行业现状确定基线场景;之后,量化筛选后的措施的成本与收益,通过计算成本收益率(CBR)或规避事故隐含成本(ICAF)来确定相应措施的合理性;最后,依据上述分析制定风险控制决策。结果表明:不同措施的CBR或ICAF值不同,CBR或ICAF值较低的措施应被优先实施;而当CBR或ICAF值超过标准值时,相应措施是不合理的,应不予以实施。

Risk Control Decision-making Process of Oil and Gas Pipelines Based on Cost-Benefit Analysis

In order to control the risk from oil and gas pipelines effectively,decision-making process of risk control was improved,based on cost-benefit analysis.First,targets of risk control were set,initial screening of proposed risk control options(RCOs) was carried out,and baseline scenarios were identified;Second,costs and benefits arising from RCOs were quantified,and by calculating Cost-Benefit Ratio(CBR) or ICAF,whether RCOs were reasonably practicable can be proved;Finally,risk control decisions were made according to analysis above.The results show that CBR or ICAF vary with different RCOs;RCOs with lower CBR or ICAF should be carried out preferentially;RCOs with CBR or ICAF exceeding the criteria are reasonabl and should not be put into practice.