煤矿政策对安全生产影响分析及实证研究

为分析煤矿政策对安全生产中的影响,回顾1978年以来煤矿政策和安全生产状况。统计了1978—2010年我国主要的煤矿政策,分阶段分析其与煤炭产量、煤矿事故指标之间的发展变化关系,运用EViews6建立煤矿事故死亡人数与煤炭产量之间的回归模型,并进行检验修正,比较验证煤矿政策的作用效果。结果表明:1978—1991年和1992—2002年,煤炭产量对死亡人数的影响系数为397.482,事故随产量的增长而加剧,但后一时期由于政策监管等因素影响,在同等产量条件下,煤矿事故相对减少;2003—2010年,影响系数为-283.770,煤矿安全状况随煤炭产量的增长而明显好转。

Empirical Study on Influences of Coal Mine Policies on Work Safety in China

To test the influence of coal mine policy on the work safety,related policies and safety production in coal mine were investigated since 1978.In this paper,the major coal mine policies about safety in 1978-2010 was gathered firstly,and then the relationship between the changes of coal output,accidents and policies was analyzed in three stages.Lastly a model between the yearly coal output and deaths based on EViews6 was established and modified to demonstrate the effect of policies.The results show that the influence coefficient of coal output on the deaths is 397.482 in 1978-1991 and in 1992-2002,indicating that the coal mine accidents increase with the growth of output,but the latter has fewer casualties as a result of the policy regulation and other factors.The influence coefficient is-283.770 in 2003-2010,that is,coal mine accidents decrease with the growth of output,with safety situation being clearly better.