中小学校园拥挤踩踏事故风险评估指标研究

为研究诱发中小学校园拥挤踩踏事故风险因素,根据近年来21起典型事故统计结果,设计调查问卷,在问卷信度检验结果满足良好的相关水平和一致性的基础上得出中小学校园拥挤踩踏事故影响因素分为4个方面,9个因素。基于数据处理系统(DPS),引入非参数投影寻踪回归模型的理论方法,对多维拥挤踩踏事故影响因素数据进行投影降维分析,利用交叉核实,进行非参数拟合,得出每一因素的权重值及事故发生预测值。拟合结果表明:人群失控、人群密度、时间限制3个影响因素更为重要,在校园拥挤踩踏事故日常预防中应多予重视,同时初步探讨影响因素权重在中小学拥挤踩踏事故评估中的应用,为进一步有效防止校园拥挤踩踏事故发生提供技术支持。

Research on Risk Assessment Indicators of Crowded Stampede Accidents in Elementary and Secondary Schools

For the sake of researching the indicators inducing stampede accidents in elementary and secondary schools,based on the statistics of 21 typical accidents in recent years,the factors causing crowded stampede accidents in elementary and secondary schools,which include four aspects involving 9 factors,are gained by designing a survey whose test reliability result meets relevant standards and good consistency.Then based on DPS(Data Processing System),the projection pursuit regression method is introduced in the dimensionality reduction analysis of crowded stampede multidimensional data projection factors,and the weight of each factor and the predictive probability of the accident are gained by using cross-verification and non-parameter fitting.Fitting results show that the factors of "crowd out-of-control","crowd density" and "time limit" are more important than others,which should be given more attention to in the daily campus stampede accident prevention.At last,a preliminary study on stampede risk assessment in elementary and secondary schools is analyzed to provide technical support for the further effective assessment and prevention of campus crowded stampede accidents.