基于图论的海洋平台连锁风险评价

为控制海洋平台连锁风险,基于图论(GT),提出一种新型定性风险评价方法,将分析对象的复杂风险分析转化为图形分析运算。该方法综合考虑研究对象的风险,重点考虑事故可能的发展模式,建立并转换可能发生的事故的连锁图,用图论算法进行图形运算,得到造成结果事故发生的关键路径、最短路径和点割集,设置并优化安全屏障,防止初始事故发生。最后,结合墨西哥湾事故,建立事故连锁图,通过图形变换与运算得到2条最短路径、3条关键路径和2个点割集,并提出风险控制措施。

Offshore Platform Chain Risk Assessment Based on Graph Theory

A large number of offshore platform accidents indicate that major accidents with disastrous consequences are derived from an unexpected initial incident,so that they have chain character.Based on GT,in view of chain risk,a new qualitative risk assessment method was worked out,in which complex risk analysis was converted into graph analysis and calculation.In the new method,the risk of the object of study was assessed comprehensively,probable development modes of accident were considered emphatically,a linkage map of probable accidents was drawn and converted,graphic calculation was carried out using graphic algorithm,then the critical path,shortest path and point cut sets leading to the final accident were gotten,safety barriers were set to prevent the initial accident.The new method was applied to the blowout accident at Gulf of Mexico,accident chain map was drawn and converted into a chart with weights,in which two shortest paths,three critical paths and two points cut sets were acquired.What’s more,risk control measures were proposed.