基于点危险源的危险品运输路径优化研究

为合理选择危险品运输路径,降低危险品运输事故造成的损失,使道路危险品运输风险评价更符合实际情况,建立点危险源风险评价模型。模型综合考虑了运输时间和季节情况影响因子,在准确估算危险品泄漏事故毒害区域面积和后果损失的基础上,结合传统风险评价模型与最大最小模型进行求解。最后通过算例分析,检验该模型的实际运用,通过与传统求和方式所得的最优运输路径的对比,反映2种方式所求得的最优运输路径并不相同,同时也表明,用所建模型求得的运输路径风险值有更高的精确性。计算结果表明:该模型求得的某条运输路径的风险值等于该路径上风险值最大的路段的风险值,而不是该路径上所有路段的风险值之和。

Dangerous Goods Transport Path Optimization Based on Point of Hazard

A Risk Evaluation Model for the point of hazard was built to make the risk evaluation of the road dangerous goods transportation conform to reality.This model considers the time of transportation and season situation factors,and also combines with the Traditional Risk Evaluation Model and Max&Min Calculation,in order that the reasonable path of dangerous goods transportation can be selected on the basis of accurate estimation of the toxicity area size of dangerous goods leakage accident and the losses of the accident.Finally,a numerical example is used for testing the practical application of the model.It was showed that the risk of transport path obtained by the point of hazard model is more accurate.The calculation results show that the value of risk at a transport path is equal to the largest one of values of risk at the path sections,not the sum of the values of risk at all sections.