基于ISM方法的煤矿安全政策控灾作用分析

为研究煤矿安全政策的事故防控作用(控灾作用),在安全政策条款和前人研究成果基础上凝炼出42个煤矿安全政策控灾因子,运用解释结构建模方法,通过两两对比建立42个因子间的相关关系矩阵、建立可达矩阵并划分因子层级,最终建立煤矿安全政策的控灾作用模型。结果表明:安全政策42个控灾因子对事故防控的作用从强到弱分为5个层级;安全政策的科学性、安全监察体系、国家宏观利益是安全政策控灾的重要因子,其次是地方政府、矿主利益、地方安监体系和安全管理机制,而煤矿生产系统、煤层赋存特征及安全科技等因子由于受安全政策间接作用其控灾作用相对较弱。

Analysis of Accident Controlling Effect of Coalmine Safety Policy Based on Interpretative Structural Modeling Method

In order to investigate the accident controlling effect of coalmine safety policy,42 controlling factors in the policy were summed up.A correlation matrix of accident controlling factors and a reachability Matrix of the factors were built.Hierarchies of the factors were divided.Finally,a controlling accident model of coalmine safety policy was built.The results show that the factors are divided into five levels by their importance in controlling accident.The most important factors include the scientificalness of coalmine policies,safety supervision systems and the national interest,followed by the interests of local governments,the interests of coalmine proprietors,local safety supervision and safety management mechanism.Some factors such as coal mine production systems,coal distribution,safety science and technology are weak in controlling accident because their action is indirect.