Evaluation of alternative forest system management policies the case of the spruce budworm in New Brunswick |
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| Authors: | WA Thompson CS Holling D Kira CC Huang I Vertinskf |
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| Institution: | 1. Duke University, Durham, North Carolina, 27706, USA;2. Institute of Resource Ecology, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada;3. Memorial University, Newfoundland, USA |
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| Abstract: | A major difficulty in choosing a forest management policy that regulates yearly spraying and logging levels is the fact that such a choice involves comparisons among risky alternatives. Practical and theoretical constraints often make the specification of a utility function for the system infeasible. This paper demonstrates that by making reasonable and easily verifiable assumptions about some properties of preference profiles of participants in the system, it is possible to produce an effective algorithm for forest policy evaluation. The method proposed and applied to the case of the New Brunswick forests consists of: (1) construction of a forest simulation to generate policy contingent distributions of outcomes, and (2) employment of stochastic dominance to identify a nondominated set of policies. |
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