异常环境下要害系统确信安全评估方法

目的获得异常环境下的要害系统确信安全评估(PLOAS)建立评估方法和技术框架,为要害系统安全性设计和安全防护决策提供科学支撑。方法基于要害系统在异常环境条件下结构响应行为机制,以表征安全性的响应特征参数为对象,融合试验、数值仿真等技术手段以及代理模型构建等不确定性分析方法,通过定量计算安全特征参数未达到失效阈值的概率,建立通用的确信安全评估方法和技术流程。结果针对单特征参数系统、隔离-失能系统以及多特征参数系统,分别提出了PLOAS的定义。并以高压容器作为工程案例,实现了火烧环境下高压容器的确信安全评估。结论建立的确信安全评估方法技术流程兼顾了系统安全物理特性与统计特点,对于高安全性要求的要害系统安全风险评估具有较好的适用性和推广性。

Assured Safety Assessment Method of High Consequence System with Abnormal Environment

An assessment method of assured safety and technical frameworks for high consequence system with abnormal environment were obtained, which provided scientific support for safety design and protective decision-making of high consequence system. Based on structural responses behavior mechanism of high consequence system under abnormal environmental conditions, the response characteristic parameters representing safety are used as the object, and the technical methods such as testing, numerical simulation as well as the uncertainty analysis methods such as surrogate model construction are combined, and through quantitative computation of the probability of characteristic parameters not-reaching failure threshold, a general assured safety assessment method and technical processes are established. For single characteristic parameter system, strong and weak system and multiple characteristic parameter system, the definitions of PLOAS were proposed respectively. The high-pressure vessel was used as an engineering case, to realize the assured safety assessment of the high-pressure vessel in the fire environment. Through theoretical analysis and case calculations, it is shown that the technical process of the assured security assessment method established takes both physical and statistical characteristics of system security into account, and has good applicability and generalization for the security risk assessment of high consequence systems with high security requirements.