Secular trends of atmospheric methane (CH4)

Due partly to human activities the present yearly emissions of CH₄ exceed the atmospheric sinks, thus leading to a 1.2–1.9% per year atmospheric increase in the concentration of CH₄. New evidence based on studies of polar ice cores suggests that several hundred years ago the concentrations of CH₄ were perhaps only half of current values. These diverse findings are tied together in a single unified logistic model of atmospheric concentrations past, present and future. Using realistic growth rates of the sources of CH₄ caused by human activities, the model explains the concentrations and current growth rates. It also predicts that a doubling of CH₄ relative to present levels is possible given the long (9-year) atmospheric lifetime. Such increases of CH₄ concentrations may have already perturbed our global environment and may continue to do so in the future. The environmental effects include increased surface temperature of the earth, additional O₃ and CO in the clean non-urban atmosphere, depletions of tropospheric OH radicals, but perhaps also protection of the stratospheric ozone layer from destruction by man-made fluorocarbons.