哈尔滨市大气主要污染物浓度变化与城市发展因素影响分析研究

采用Daniel趋势检验法对哈尔滨市近年来SO2、NO2和PM10年均浓度变化趋势分析,并对城市总人口与经济、产业结构、民用汽车保有量和能源状况五个城市发展因素进行数据统计分析,用SPSS探究城市发展过程中影响大气污染的因素及相关性.结果表明:浓度变化趋势是SO2明显上升;NO2缓慢上升;PM10整体明显下降,但在2013年点突增至了0.119 mg/m3.SO2与NO2显著相关,相关系数为0.533.经统计,哈尔滨人口经济发展、产业结构调整较为缓慢,全市民用汽车保有量增加并未对NO2浓度影响显著,能源结构依然以煤为主,虽然能源强度提升,但也存在着煤质、散煤的问题.哈尔滨市各城市发展因素与污染物浓度关联度不显著.

Variation and Driving Factors of Main Air Pollutants Concentration in Harbin

By using the Daniel trend test, the changes in main air pollutants' annual average concentration in recent year were obtained. Meanwhile, in order to explore the influence of air pollution in the process of urban development, the five driving factors which are the total urban population, GDP, industrial structure change, the number of vehicle and energy use were chosen and analyzed by data and statistics which used SPSS. The result showed that different pollutants displayed three trends:SO2 fit a dis-tinct increasing trend, NO2 showed a flat decreasing trend, while PM10 fit a decreasing significantly, but it increased to 0. 119 mg/m3 sharply in 2013. The annual average concentration between SO2 and NO2 had a significant correlation and the correlation coef-ficient is 0. 533. According to the statistics, the development of population and GDP is slow. The increase of vehicle has not sig-nificant influence on the concentration of NO2 . And the energy structure is still given priority to coal. Although the energy intensi-ty has raised, the problems of the coal quality and bulk coal still exist. The driving factors in Harbin had less significant for the average concentration of SO2 , NO2 and PM10 .