中国出口贸易与环境目标相容性评估——基于环境效应分解模型的分析

在理论上，国际贸易既可能促进环境改善，也可能加重环境负担。在实际中，国际贸易对环境的影响最终可分解成规模效应、结构效应和技术效应。本文通过构建一个包括政府因素在内的环境效应分解模型，对中国1996年-2005年出口贸易的环境效应进行了大致估算，结果发现中国出口贸易与环境目标不相容，加重了环境负担。最后，在此基础上提出相应对策建议。

Analysis on the Compatibility of Chinese Exports with Environmental Goal--Based on the Model of the Decomposition of Environmental Effects

Tbeoretieally, international trades may both improve and degrade environment; practically, the effects of international trades on environment can be ultimately divided into scale effects, composition effects and technique effects. This paper builds up a decomposition model of environmental effects including the variable representing the role of government, then based on which the environmental effects of Chinese exports during the period of 1996 -2005 are approximately estimated only to find the incompatibility of Chinese exports with environment. Finally, some corresponding countermeasures are put forward.