湖北省棉花生产变化影响因子研究

利用灰色关联分析方法,探讨了湖北省近50多年来棉花生产的总体变化趋势及影响湖北省棉花总产量的各项因子。结果表明,棉花单产是影响湖北省棉花总产量的首要因子,播种面积对棉花总产的影响仅次于单产,其制约作用呈上升趋势;自然因素对棉花总产量的影响不断下降;有效灌溉面积对湖北省棉花总产量有逐步增强的制约趋势;农业机械总动力、农业用电量以及化肥施用量对湖北省棉花总产也有着重要的影响。

Study on Changing Trends and Effect Factors of Cotton Production in Hubei Province

According to the statistical data,the development tendency of the cotton production in Hubei Province during the last more than 50 years were discussed in the paper.On the basis of the analysis,the authors furtherly studied the factors affecting the total output of cotton in Hubei Province by means of the grey relatedness degree analysis.The results showed that the per unit area cotton yield was the predominant driving force in all affecting factor.The cotton sown area was very important factor which was more and more important to output of cotton and the status was rising.The function of natural effect factors were lowed continuously.The influence of effective irrigated area escalated.The total power of agricultural machinery,electricity consumed in rural and consumption of agricultural chemical fertilizer were also important factors for cotton output of Hubei Province.