基于不确定性的水资源配置双层模型及其实证研究

针对水资源管理系统的不确定性和复杂性,引入区间参数表达系统中的不确定信息,建立了反映水资源管理者和使用者之间层次关系的区间双层规划模型,并以北京市丰台区水资源管理系统为例进行实证研究.同时,基于交互式算法和模糊满意度算法,用Lingo软件编程求解,确定了丰台区水资源的优化配置方案.规划结果表明:丰台区水资源管理系统的供需水量基本达到平衡,75%的供水量来源于本地地表水和南水北调水源;规划期内的系统经济效益预期达到2.22×10~9~5.16×10~9元,COD排放量将达到1.47×10~4~1.89×10~4t.区间结果提高了优化方案的灵活性,系统满意度体现了上层决策者与下层决策者的交互.其次,通过设计4种COD最大允许排放情景,说明了不同的COD排放约束将对规划结果产生重要影响.最后,通过3种模型的对比分析可以为丰台区水资源配置提供不同发展情景下的优化方案.

Empirical research on bi-level allocation model of water resources under uncertainty

According to the uncertainty and complexity in water resources management system, an interval bi-level programming model is developed for water resources management (IBPM-WRM), wherein the coordination relationship between water managers and users can be better reflected, and interval parameters are introduced into the model to express the uncertainties. The developed model is applied to water resources management in the district of Fengtai, Beijing. A fuzzy possibilistic approach associated with interactive solution method is communicated to the solution process, and some water resources allocation schemes can be obtained for Fengtai District by using Lingo programming. Results show that it would achieve a balance between water supply and demand in Fengtai District; local surface water and water source of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project would contribute 75% in terms of supply. Over the entire planning horizon, the expected system benefits would amount to 2.22×10⁹~5.16×10⁹ Yuan, and the resulting COD discharge would reach 1.47×10⁴~1.89×10⁴ tons. Interval results improve the flexibility of the optimization schemes, and satisfactory degrees reflect the interactive process between upper-level decision-maker and lower-level decision-maker. Then, though the design of four kinds of maximum allowable COD discharge scenarios, it shows that different levels of COD discharge would have significant impacts on the optimization. Finally, the alternatives with multi-option contexts are also given through comparative analysis of the three models.