化工企业DVR风险分析模型的构建及应用——基于公共安全三角形模型*

为对化工企业风险进行评价，根据公共安全三角形理论，从危险源破坏性、目标脆弱性和应急处置可恢复性3个方面建立风险分析模型。在危险源破坏性上，从事故发生可能性和事故后果危险性2个方面进行讨论并得出可能性和危险性系数。在目标脆弱性上，建立人和物的脆弱性计算模型得出目标脆弱性的系数。设立应急管理指标，结合专家评分得出应急处置可恢复性系数。将各系数归一化相乘得到化工安全风险分析整合系数，建立基于危险源破坏性（Destructiveness）、目标脆弱性（Vulnerability）、应急处置可恢复性（Recoverability）的DVR风险分析模型，并进行应用实例分析。结果表明:该模型在化工企业的风险评价中具有一定的实用性。

Construction and application of DVR risk analysis model for chemical enterprises—Based on public safety triangle model

In order to evaluate the risk of chemical enterprises,according to the public safety triangle theory,a risk analysis model was established from three aspects: the destructiveness of hazards,the vulnerability of targets and the recoverability of emergency response.In terms of the destructiveness of hazards,two aspects including the possibility of accident occurrence and the danger of accident consequence were discussed,and the possibility and risk coefficient were obtained.In terms of target vulnerability,a calculation model of human and material vulnerability was established to obtain the coefficient of target vulnerability.The indexes of emergency management were set up,and the recoverability coefficient of emergency response was obtained combining with the expert scores.The integration coefficient of chemical safety risk analysis was obtained by multiplying the normalized coefficients,and a DVR risk analysis model based on the destructiveness of hazards (Destructiveness),the vulnerability of targets (Vulnerability) and the recoverability of emergency response (Recoverability) was established.The analysis of application example showed that the model had certain practicability in the risk assessment of chemical enterprises.