基于DEMATEL-ISM-BN的施工人员不安全行为致因研究*

为明确施工过程中人的不安全行为致因及产生路径，基于理论与案例分析构建以个体、设备、管理、环境为核心的评估指标体系；结合DEMATEL和ISM并借助专家知识构建层次网络模型，将其映射到BN中，依据节点的先验概率和条件概率实现因素之间耦合关系强度的量化；利用正向因果推理方法预测不同情况下不安全行为发生概率，反向诊断推理识别不安全行为产生的最大致因链。结果表明:施工过程不安全行为发生概率为26.5%，最大致因路径为政府监管力度不足→现场监管工作存在漏洞→不良行为习惯→安全认知失误→不安全行为，可为现场施工人员安全行为管控提供参考。

Study on causes of unsafe behaviors of construction workers based on DEMAREL-ISM-BN

In order to clarify the causes and generation path of human unsafe behaviors during the construction process,based on the theoretical and case analysis,an evaluation index system with the individuals,equipment,management and environment as the core was constructed.The DEMATEL and ISM were integrated,and a hierarchical network model was constructed with the help of expert knowledge and mapped into BN.According to the prior probability and conditional probability of the node,the strength of the coupling relationship between the factors was quantified.Finally,the forward causal reasoning was used to predict the occurrence probability of unsafe behaviors in different situations,and the reverse diagnostic reasoning was used to identify the largest cause chain of unsafe behaviors.The results showed that the occurrence probability of unsafe behaviors in the construction process was 26.5%,and the maximum cause path was insufficient government supervision → loopholes in on site supervision → bad behavioral habits → safety cognition errors → unsafe behaviors,which provide reference for the management and control on the safe behaviors of on site construction workers.