可持续发展目标达成度对中国生态文明建设公众满意度的影响

自联合国可持续发展目标提出以来，学者们聚焦其达成度开展了大量的评估工作，以期揭示中国可持续发展过程中面临的问题和挑战，进而指导政府决策.已有评估指标的选择是“自上而下”的，普遍参照联合国建议.然而，在实际应用中，可持续发展评估结果是否与“自下而上”衡量政府绩效的另外一个重要标准“生态文明建设公众满意度”相匹配尚不明确，增加了政府决策的不确定性.因此，该研究以中国31个省级行政单位为样本(不包括港澳台地区数据)，建立了可持续发展达成度梯度，利用滑动窗口结合线性回归等方法，分析了可持续发展目标达成度的两个维度(平均达成度和目标间均衡度)与生态文明建设公众满意度间的变化关系及其驱动机制.结果表明：(1)可持续发展评估的两个维度中，目标平均达成度与公众满意度之间无显著关系，目标间均衡度则与公众满意度呈正相关，特别是在较高可持续发展水平下(R2=0.36,P<0.01).(2)环境和经济指标是影响生态文明建设公众满意度的主要因素，环境质量的影响在可持续发展水平较高的阶段更加强烈.(3)经济发展和环境保护目标间的权衡关系制约了可持续发展状况相对较好省份的生态文明建设，也是决定可持续目标间均衡...

Influence of Sustainable Development Progress on Public Satisfaction of Ecological Civilization Construction in China

Since the United Nations proposed the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in 2015, intensive studies have been carried out to assess China's progress towards SDGs, aiming at a comprehensive understanding of the current challenges to guide policymaking for future development. Generally, the SDGs indicator system follows the recommendations of the United Nations. However, whether these objective assessment results match public satisfaction of ecological civilization construction (another important criterion for measuring government performance towards SDGs) remains unexplored, which could largely interfere with policymaking processes. This study investigates the changing relationship between public satisfaction with ecological civilization construction and the average performance of all SDGs or SDGs evenness and its underlying mechanism by establishing a sustainable development gradient with 31 provinces in China (excluding the data of Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan). By doing so, we aim to guide policymaking at different development stages. Our results shows that: (1) There is no significant relationship between the average performance of all SDGs and public satisfaction, while SDGs evenness is positively correlated with public satisfaction, especially at a high level of average performance (R2=0.36, P<0.01). (2) Environmental and economic indicators are the main factors affecting the public satisfaction, while the impact of environmental quality is greater in provinces with higher average performance towards SDGs. (3) The trade-off between economic development and environmental protection goals restricts the construction of ecological civilization in provinces with high average performance towards SDGs, and is also an important factor shaping the positive correlation between the SDGs evenness and public satisfaction. Overall, this study highlights that SDGs evenness, rather than the commonly used average performance of all SDGs, is an important factor controlling public satisfaction. Thus, the traditional assessment using the latter is not likely to effectively guide the ecological civilization construction in China. This may be due to the neglect of progress differences among SDGs when looking at the average performance only. Moreover, the effect of progress differences in SDGs related to economic development and environmental protection on public satisfaction gradually increases along the sustainable development gradient, suggesting that China should pay more attention to the deficiencies of SDGs to stimulate ecological civilization construction in the future.