基于AHP-熵权法的基层地震科普能力评价*

为提高基层地震科普评价工作的客观性和精准性，根据“环境-投入-产出-效果”的评价框架，建立涵盖保障能力、队伍能力、设施能力、产出能力、活动能力5类26项指标的基层地震科普能力评价指标体系，选用AHP-熵权法计算指标的组合权重；以天津为例进行验证，并提出相关工作建议。结果表明:建立的评价模型对于开展定量化的区域基层地震科普能力评价具有较强的参考价值，评价结果与实际情况基本相符；天津市基层地震科普在硬件建设方面取得较好成效，但整体能力依然偏弱，16个区平均得分仅为0.344 8；发展不平衡、软实力不足是制约当前发展最重要的2个因素；提出相关的工作建议可为优化基层科普工作布局、提高工作实效提供有益参考。

Evaluation of grassroots earthquake science popularization capability based on AHP-entropy method

In order to improve the objectivity and accuracy of evaluation on the grassroots earthquake science popularization,according to the evaluation framework of “environment input output effect”,an evaluation index system covering 26 indexes in five categories was established,including support capability,team capability,facility capability,output capacity and activity ability.The AHP-entropy method was used to calculate the combination weights of indexes,and the verification was carried out by taking Tianjin as an example and relevant work suggestions was proposed.The results showed that the established evaluation model had stronger reference value for the quantitative evaluation of regional grassroots earthquake science popularization capability,and the evaluation results were basically in line with the actual situation.The grassroots earthquake science popularization of Tianjin had achieved good results in hardware construction,but the overall capability was still weak.The average score of 16 districts was only 0.344 8.The unbalanced development and insufficient soft power were the two most important factors restricting the current development.The proposed relevant work suggestions can provide a useful reference for optimizing the layout of grassroots science popularization work and improving the work effectiveness.