公路隧道火灾环境人群逃生行为分析及多项Logit建模*

为提高隧道疏散效率，研究环境、社会和个人因素对逃生行为的影响。基于虚拟现实技术从心理学和行为学角度对公路隧道逃生行为及影响因素进行研究，利用Unity 3D建立虚拟场景下的公路隧道场景，通过步行模拟器和ErgoLAB无线生理模块采集步速和心电；应用核密度曲线研究平均心率的变化特性；采用Hermite插值法描述步速的变化趋势。在试验结果的基础上，构建基于多项Logit的逃生行为模型。结果表明:平静状态下，男性的平均心率个体差异性较大，运动状态下，女性的平均心率波动较大；测试者在隧道内遇到障碍物会降低步速，在逐渐深入并穿越人群的过程中，呈现步速加快的特征；逃生行为的MNL模型R2和准确度分别达到87.41%和92%；隧道内障碍物越少，前方人群越多，且能见度越差，人越容易处于恐慌状态，更倾向于跟随他人。研究结果可为火灾环境下的公路隧道人群疏散模型的建立提供参考，对避免人员伤亡和减少财产损失具有实际意义。

Analysis of crowd escape behavior in highway tunnel fire environment and multinomial Logit modeling

To improve the evacuation efficiency of tunnel,the influence of environmental,social and personal factors on the escape behavior was studied.The escape behavior and influencing factors of highway tunnels were researched from psychology and behavior science based on virtual reality technology.Then a highway tunnel scene under the virtual scenario was established by using Unity 3D,and the pace and ECG were collected through the walking simulator and ErgoLAB wireless physiology module.The kernel density curve was applied to study the changing characteristics of average heart rate,and the Hermite interpolation method was used to describe the changing trend of pace.A model of escape behavior based on the multinomial Logit was constructed on the basis of testing results.It showed that the individual differences in the average heart rate of men were greater in the calm state,while the average heart rate of women fluctuated greatly in the movement state.When the participants encountered the obstacles in the tunnel,the pace reduced,and during the process of gradually deepening and passing through the crowd,the pace accelerated.The R2 and accuracy of MNL Model for the escape behavior reached 87.41% and 92%,respectively.The fewer the obstacles in the tunnel,the more people in front,the worse the visibility,the easier it was for people to panic and they were more inclined to follow others.The research results can be applied to the establishment of crowd evacuation model in highway tunnel under fire environment,which are of great significance to avoid the casualties and reduce the property losses.