京津冀一体化的地震灾害应急准备分区*

为研究京津冀地区地震灾害应急准备分区问题，针对京津冀地区地震灾害风险及应对特点，构建地震应急准备选址评价指标体系，设计Jenks-AHP方法计算京津冀地区13个城市应急准备选址优先度，基于运筹学经典LP模型，运用数学规划、GIS系统V图及缓冲区分析技术，给出京津冀地震应急准备分区的3种优选方案。结果表明:在应急覆盖面积最大和应急响应时间最短的目标规划下，2个分区应选择以北京、石家庄为应急中心的区划为最优方案；3个分区应选择以北京、天津、石家庄为救援中心的区划为最优方案；4个分区应选择以北京、天津、石家庄和唐山为救援中心的区划为最优方案。研究结果可为京津冀3地打破行政区划壁垒，开展一体化应急准备体系规划和应急资源储备布局提供决策参考。

Emergency preparedness zoning of earthquake disaster with Beijing Tianjin Hebei integration

In order to study the problem of emergency preparedness zoning for the earthquake disaster in the Beijing Tianjin Hebei region,aiming at the risk and response characteristics of earthquake disaster in the Beijing Tianjin Hebei region,an evaluation index system for the emergency preparedness site selection of earthquake was constructed,and the priorities of emergency preparedness site selection for thirteen cities in the Beijing Tianjin Hebei region were calculated by designing the Jenks-AHP method.On the basis of classic LP model in the operations research,three optimization schemes for emergency preparedness zoning of earthquake in the Beijing Tianjin Hebei region were given by using the mathematical programming,Voronoi diagram and spatial buffer analysis technology in GIS system.The results showed that under the target planning with the largest emergency coverage area and the shortest emergency response time,the optimum regionalization scheme with Beijing and Shijiazhuang as the emergency centers should be selected for two zones,the optimum regionalization scheme with Beijing,Tianjin and Shijiazhuang as the rescue centers should be selected for three zones,and the optimum regionalization scheme with Beijing,Tianjin,Shijiazhuang and Tangshan as the rescue centers should be selected for four zones.The research results provide decision making reference for Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei to break down the barriers of administrative divisions and carry out the integrated emergency preparedness system planning and emergency resource reserve layout.