我国生产安全事故系统性风险研究——基于ARDL模型*

为探讨我国生产安全事故的宏观影响因素，采用自回归分布滞后（Auto regressive Distributed Lag，ARDL）模型，考察1953—2019年间我国经济增长、产业结构、就业结构以及城镇人口占比等宏观因素对我国生产安全事故的影响。结果表明:生产安全事故与上述宏观因素之间存在长期均衡关系和短期反向调整机制。在长期关系中，第二产业增加值对我国生产安全事故具有正向影响作用，而经济增长、非农业就业人口比重及城镇人口占比的影响显著为负；在短期关系中，经济增长、第三产业增加值、城镇人口占比的上升增加了生产安全事故风险。上述因素具有不同的分布滞后效应，其相互作用叠加形成生产安全事故系统性风险。研究结果可为推进我国安全发展提供理论思路和参考。

Study on systematic risk of work safety accidents in China:based on ARDL model

In order to explore the macro influencing factors of work safety accidents in China,the auto regressive distributed lag (ARDL) model was used to investigate the influence of macro factors such as economic growth,industrial structure,employment structure and urbanization rate on the work safety accidents in China from 1953 to 2019.The results showed that there existed a long term equilibrium relationship and short term reverse adjustment mechanism between the work safety accidents and the above macro factors.In the long term relationship,the added value of the secondary industry had the positive influence,while the influence of economic growth,proportion of non agricultural employment population and urbanization rate was significantly negative.In the short term relationship,the economic growth,the added value of the tertiary industry and the increasing proportion of urban population made the risk of work safety accidents increase.The above factors had different distributed lag effect,and their interaction and superposition resulted in the systematic risk of work safety accidents.The results can provide theoretical ideas and reference for promoting the safe development in China.