基于三角模糊理论的尾矿库风险评价研究

根据尾矿库的特点和我国现行的尾矿库安全生产监督管理法律法规及标准规范的要求,构建了尾矿库风险评价指标体系。综合考虑评价指标对风险发生可能性及后果严重程度的不同影响来确定指标权重,同时考虑到权重确定和指标赋值中的模糊性和不确定性等问题,选用三角模糊理论建立了尾矿库风险评价模型,并以本溪某尾矿库为例进行说明。理论分析和实例计算表明,该方法对尾矿库风险评价有很好的适用性。

Risk evaluation model of tailings pond based on the triangular fuzzy theory

The present paper is to present our improved risk evaluation method for tailings pond based on triangular fuzzy theory.As a matter of fact,tailings pond is an indispensable part and even necessary facility to maintain the normal production activities of a mining enterprise,though the loss caused by the tailings accidents every year is considerably serious.So it is of important theoretical and practical significance to establish an ideal risk assessment model to reduce the loss and damage brought by them.For this purpose,we have established a risk evaluation index system on the basis of the characteristic analysis of tailings pond legal and safety requirements in accordance with the national mining safety standard.As we know,most of the current risk analysis problems contain a mixture of quantitative and qualitative data;therefore some certain quantitative or qualitative risk assessment techniques prove to be inefficient for prioritizing the risks involved,for example,the safety checklist analysis(SCA) and set pair analysis(SPA).To make up for the deficiencies of the present index weight determined methods and the risk assessment methods under way,this article presents a risk assessment methodology based on the Fuzzy Sets Theory,which is by nature an effective tool to deal with subjective judgment.The proposed method of ours incorporates knowledge and experience gained by the mining enterprises concerned and the corresponding experts,because they are in charge of the risks identification and their structuring,and also the subjective judgments of the parameters,which are considered to assess the overall risk factors: risk impact,risk probability.The so-called triangular fuzzy theory adopted by us authors to assess a certain tailings pond in Benxi as the mathematical background is used to solve the problems of subjectivity and uncertainty to determine the index weights and index values.The most notable differences with other fuzzy risk assessment methods are the use of an algorithm to handle the inconsistencies in the fuzzy preference relation.The result indicates that this method used is feasible and rational.The work specified in this paper can be taken as a reference to the actual assessments of the tailings ponds at least for all the mining businesses in China.