我国能源效率、CO_2减排潜力及影响因素分析

基于DEA方法构建出一个包含CO2排放量的综合能源效率指标,运用2000～2007年省级面板数据计算了我国30个省市的综合能源效率,并使用Tobit模型分析了该综合能源效率的影响因素.研究表明:全国能源效率最高的4个省市分别为上海、广东、海南和青海,该结果与不考虑CO2排放的能源效率计算结果有所差异;我国各省区CO2减排潜力呈现出5种变化趋势,包括基本不变、先降后升、先升后降、稳定上升、稳定下降,其中减排潜力较大的为山东、山西、河北、辽宁4省;我国政府影响力、对外开放程度对能源效率影响显著,产业结构、环保力度对能源效率影响不显著,此外技术进步指标由于难以正确的衡量,其对能源效率的影响还难以说明.

Energy efficiency, potential of CO2 emission reduction and its determinants across Chinese regions

Based on the DEA approach, this paper estimates a comprehensive energy efficiency indicator which incorporates CO2 emission for 30 provinces/cities in China using the panel data from 2000 to 2007, and then investigates its determinants by employing a Tobit model. The estimation results show that the four provinces with the highest energy efficiency in China are Shanghai, Guangdong, Hainan and Qinghai, which is different from the energy efficiency estimation that does not take into account CO2 emissions. The reduction potential of CO2 emission in these provinces shows five kinds of trends, including the basically unchanged, up after going down, down after going up, steadily rising, and steadily declining. The provinces which have high potential for emission reduction are Shandong, Shanxi, Hebei and Liaoning. The government’s expenditure and the opening degree have a significant influence on energy efficiency, while the industry structure and enforcement of environmental protection aren’t closely related with it.The impact of technology progress cannot be clearly identified for lacking of appropriate measurement.