太湖流域居民暴露于DDTs的健康风险评价

采用多介质环境数学模型,评价太湖流域居民暴露于DDTs的健康风险,分析风险来源、暴露介质及暴露途径,并结合蒙特卡罗方法分析研究过程中的不确定性. 结果表明,太湖流域居民中男性和女性对环境中DDTs的终身日平均暴露量分别为4.00×10－4～8.28×10－3和3.73×10－4～7.28×10－3 mg/(kg·d). 暴露途径中食物摄取是最主要途径,其次是吸入,皮肤暴露作用很小. 食物中贡献较大的为谷物、鱼类和肉类. 相应的男性和女性的健康风险度分别为0.114×10－6～2.366×10－6 和0.107×10－6～2.081×10－6 a－1,低于可接受健康风险度标准的累积概率分别为80.85%和86.05%. 

Health Risk Assessment of DDTs Exposure of Residents Around Taihu Lake

Multiple-pathway exposure models were used to estimate pollutant exposure and to study the main risk sources among environmental media and exposure pathways. The Monte Carlo method was used to estimate uncertainty in the process of risk assessment. The results showed that the daily exposure doses for male andfemale residents near Taihu Lake were 4.00×10－4～8.28×10－3 mg/(kg·d) and 3.73×10－4～7.28×10－3 mg/(kg·d), respectively. Among the three exposure routes, it was found that ingestion and inhalation were the major exposure routes for DDTs exposure in all resident populations, but dermal exposure could be ignored. The health risk for DDTs exposure were 0.114×10－6～2.366×10－6a－1　and 0.107×10－6～2.081×10－6 a－1for male and female residents, respectively. The probabilities for acceptable risk were 80.85% and 86.05% for male and female residents, respectively.