基于DEMATEL的铁路行车人因事故关键因素实证分析

针对铁路行车人因事故受多因素交互影响的问题,提出了一种基于信息熵和DEMATEL法耦合的铁路行车人因事故关键因素实证分析方法。首先依据铁路行车人因事故认知行为模型,从感知、决策、计划和执行4个过程分析铁路行车人因事故的影响因素;然后综合运用信息熵和DEMATEL法构建关键因素量化识别模型,利用中心度和原因度两个参数分析铁路行车人因事故的关键影响因素;最后,结合2008—2013年铁路行车人因事故数据进行实证分析。结果表明,机车操作人员相关情形记忆失误、情景诊断失误、未严格执行操作规则和采取错误行动是铁路行车人因事故的关键影响因素。

Empirical analysis of the critical factors of human error resulted accidents in the railway transportation management based on DEMATEL

The article is inclined to analyze and identify the principal factors of the railway operation accidents caused by the human errors by using an empirical analysis method based on the information entropy and DEMATEL.As is known,human factors should account for the main railway operation accidents,and that is why we would like to pay greatest attention to the analysis of the critical factors that may account for the railway traffic and transportation accidents,which can be highly complicated and interactive by nature,that is,multi-and-mutual interactional factors,which can be illustrated as follows.First of all,the influential factors may originate from the following four aspects:the perception,the decision-making,the planning and the implementation,including the personnel sense of responsibilities,fuzzy or loose assessment of the situations in front,failure to take detailed and timely continuous observations,the inaccurate and inadequate careful observations,the lop-sided information and mis-conducted communications,the memory drop-loss of the relevant circumstances,the status-in-situ diagnostic mishaps,the slackening operation rules,violation of the relevant rules,failure to act in a timely corresponding manner to issue necessary operating signals,wrong action or mindless behaviors due to the cognitive or behavioral misconducts.And,secondly,a key factor quantization model has to be built and the information entropy has to be applied to work out the indexical weights of the influential factors by using the DEMATEL method.And,thirdly,it is also necessary to establish a directly influential relationship matrix and a comprehensive influential matrix of the factors concerned.What is more important,it is necessary to work out the affecting degrees and the extents of the factors involved and the critical affecting degrees based on the theoretical and practical basis.Thus,we have analyzed the key influential factors of the railway traffic accidents from the two sides,that is,the critical degrees and the causative degrees,with the 2008-2013 railway operation accident statistics data used for the starting points of our empirical analysis.The results show that the principal factors leading to the railway operation accidents can be stated as follows:the railway drivers fail to operate in accordance with the related road circumstances,the faulty diagnosis of the corresponding scenario confronted,failure to act on the necessary operation rules,etc.