平面交叉口电动自行车交通冲突模型研究

为研究电动自行车在交叉口的安全特性,减少交通管理中的安全隐患,在运用TCT技术分析电动自行车交通特性的基础上,通过实地调研7个典型的四相位信号控制平面十字形交叉口,利用SPSS软件分别选取线性、多项式及指数函数对电动自行车的交通冲突调查数据进行拟合,构建了电动自行车的交叉口交通冲突模型。最后,结合所获得的交通冲突模型的各项参数,运用欧几里德贴进度评价方法,建立了交通冲突强度的评价模型,该模型可用于评估交叉口路段电动自行车的运行安全性。结果表明,散点化的比较方法不仅可以对同一交叉口的不同进(出)口道的电动自行车交通冲突强度进行分析,还能对不同交叉口同一冲突类型的安全状况进行对比评价。

Innovative traffic jam-dissolving model for the motor-bicycles in the cross-road sections

The paper intends to identify and alleviate the traffic jams caused by the motor-bikes at the crossroads in hoping to reduce the risks in traffic control through an analysis of the traffic features of the motor-bikes with the Traffic Conflicts Technique.It is just for this purpose that we have established a traffic jam evaluation model for the motor-bikes in such traffic contexts through an investigation of seven typical four-phase signal control plane at such crossroads via SPSS software.At the same time,we have also chosen linear,polynomial,and exponential functions to make a survey by collecting enough data of the traffic jams caused by the motor-bicycles.And,finally,we have succeeded in establishing a calculation model of traffic congestion intensity along with the indexes concerned we have gained by using the aforementioned model and the evaluation method of Euclidean approximate degree algorithm.And,then,we have managed to convert the overall assessment results of the motor-bike traffic safety probability at the crossroads into various types of the traffic jam discrete sets and the approximately optimal sets.That is to say,the nearer the better.Or,to be exact,the less the degree of safety of each direction at the crossroads,the higher the safety degree.What is more,the model we have developed can also be used to evaluate the driving safety of the motor-bikes at the crossroads.Thus,the results we have investigated show that:in all the four directions of the crossroads,the dominant intervening factors caused by all kinds of vehicles,motor-bikes and motor vehicles and the pedestrians should be taken responsible for the main traffic congestions.Therefore,the way-out should be put on the improvement of the safety evaluation method of motor-bicycles at the crossroads based on the discrete points.Thus,it can be seen that motorbikes would have nothing to do with the traffic jams at the crossroads if we want to eliminate the influential factors of the traffic flow efficiency.Hence,it is necessary to assess the safety efficiency of the crossroads comprehensively in terms of the traffic intensity index and by calculating the safety index for all the directions of the crossroads.The method for comparing the distribution points can not only analyze and work out the electric bicycle traffic jam degree of the different coming-in and leaving-off rate at the same crossroads,but also make a comparative safety assessment of the similar conflicts at the different crossroads.