中国省际水风险评价

选取中国31个省(市、自治区)为研究对象,建立了以行政区域为研究尺度的水风险评价指标体系。运用决策分析模型,通过层次分析法与熵值法确定满足主客观条件的综合权重,在此基础上构建模糊识别模型,对2000—2013年中国31个省(市、自治区)水风险水平进行了评估,并从时间和空间两个维度进行分析。结果表明:1)在研究期间,中国水风险水平不断下降,大部分地区从高值、中高值向中值及中低值靠拢;2)3个子系统中,胁迫性风险一直处于上升状态,中国水资源压力较大并有极大可能继续上升,在现有技术条件下,水风险形势严峻;敏感性风险在3个子系统中贡献较低,各地区抵抗风险能力逐步提高;适应性风险稳步下降,适应风险能力提高,但下降速度减缓,表明治理水问题的难度增大;3)各地区风险来源从单一性演变成复合型,风险来源不同且空间分布不均,治理中国水风险需针对各省(市、自治区)风险来源制定针对性政策。

Assessment for the water risks at the provincial level in China

In this paper,we have established a water risk assessment system at the provincial level while taking into account the aspects of pressure,sensibility and adaptability.As a matter of fact,water risks are usually defined as a water-related risks usually caused either by natural disasters or by human activities,including the water shortage risks,the pollution risks,the natural or human-activity-involved factors,ecology risks,or human management and control risks.Here in this paper,what we have to do is to choose to access the level water risks,through the following indicators,such as the population,resources,economy,environmental and government control abilities.Then,we would like to adopt the decision-making analysis model based on the AHP and entropy methods by taking into account the comprehensive weighing parameters.For example,we would like to take as an object for evaluation the water risks in all the provinces during the period of 2000 to 2013 by meansof the secondary fuzzy pattern recognition model.The results we have gained through the said evaluation have shown that:(1) The overall level of the water risks in the whole country tends.to be declining.Though some provinces remain to face serious water resources shortage,generally speaking,the currently existing water risks situation in-situ are close to the medium level.(2) From the point of view of the risks of the internal system,pressure risk level has been remaining in a up-rising status-in-situ.Such a situation can be expected to remain continuously up-rising in the future.Under the conditions of current technological level,the situation of water shortage remains grim.Therefore,it is necessary to keep a keen sensitivity of the water risks with little or no change of the aforementioned three subsystems,so as to keep in mind the vigilance against the water shortage risks in all the provinces and regions,even if the actual water use risks have been steadily declining.(3) From the spatial dimensions,it would be necessary to divide the natural breaks (Jenks) water risks into five levels,namely,0.728 2-0.763 4,0.712 9-0.728 1,0.688 5-0.712 8,0.390 4-0.688 4,0-0.390 3,for the sources of risks may evolve into complex and complicated situation in water resource area and regional distribution,particularly in the north and northwest of the country.Seeing the need,this paper suggest to establish and formulate specific policies for different provinces according to their different water risk sources,so as to increase the general water control and management of water use and regulation through effective measures so as to reduce the waste of water use and application and increase water use efficiency in the whole country.