Delphi法职业危害风险评估模型及案例研究

为科学合理地进行建设项目职业病危害风险分类,基于系统工程及风险评估的基本原理,采用Delphi法分析和确定了影响职业病危害风险程度的因素,通过构建风险评估指标体系,建立了职业病危害影响因子赋值法(OHFA)定量化风险评估模型。根据对作业场所的危害源、本质及附加防护设施水平、人员接触机会、职业病防治管理等因子的综合分析,预测分析了研究对象的职业病危害的风险程度,为职业病危害风险辨识、风险评估、防治管理及防护设施设计等提供参考。并以某石化行业硫磺回收项目为实例进行应用与验证,得出了该项目的总体职业病危害风险度值为12,风险等级为Ⅰ级,各职业病危害因素的风险度由高到底排序为硫化氢、一氧化碳、二氧化硫、硫磺、高温,其风险分类的关键决定因素为硫化氢。实践表明该方法与专家评估结果及工程实际吻合较好,应用于职业病危害风险评估中可给出定量化的风险分类结果。

Model for occupational hazard risk assessment and a case study based on the Delphi method

The given paper is aimed at presenting its research work on the quantitative method for the occupational disease hazard risk assessment in hoping to promote the solution to the problem of occupational hazards risk classification in industrial and civil engineering construction companies.For the research purpose,we have analyzed and classified all the influential factors on the risk degrees for the workers and staff members' health through an expert investigation and evaluation with the Delphi method based on the system engineering and risk assessment theory.The said influential factors of the index system of occupation hazard risk assessment are supposed to include all the factors involved,such as the hazard source,the protection and safety levels of the essential and additional protection facilities,personnel risk-exposure levels,the occupational disease prevention and insurance factors,etc.It is based on the analysis of the above mentioned occupational hazard involving factors that we have founded a quantitative risk assessment model,known as the occupational hazard affecting factor assignment method (OHFA) by assigning appropriate values to all the said hazard affecting factors.At the same time,we have predicted and identified the risk degrees or levels so as to provide reference to the risk identification,assessment,prevention and management control.Taking a petrochemical sulfur recovery project as a case study sample,it is concluded that the overall occupational disease hazard degree risk index is 12,and the risk level is Ⅰ for the project.The risk level for all the occupational disease hazard factors in the construction project can be arranged from high to low shown as follows:hydrogen sulfide,carbon monoxide,sulfur dioxide,sulfur and high temperature.The key influential factors of the risk classification can be identified as hydrogen sulfide.The results of our study prove that the method turns to be in perfect agreement with the actual engineering analysis and expertise assessment,which can not only give a quantitative risk assessment result,but also provide the risk degree or risk rating for each of the occupational disease hazard factors as a result of comparison.Therefore,the method we have developed enjoys the advantages for the risk prevention and control measures for the prospective users.