大型游乐设施风险评估与分级方法研究

大型游乐设施的运行是一个动态管理过程,不仅涉及设备本身,而且与人、环境等因素密切相关。针对这个特点,提出大型游乐设施风险矩阵(RMM)的风险分级方法。提出了将事故树与模糊数学相结合的模糊事故树法(FFTA);采用3σ模糊表征法计算大型游乐设施各类风险事故的概率;再采用信息熵法来评价大型游乐设施的风险后果;最后利用风险矩阵法来确定大型游乐设施的风险等级,并通过实例验证了该分级模型有效。

On the risk assessment and classification of the large amusement rides

This paper attempts to propose a risk classification and assessment method for large-scaled recreational facilities and installations.As a matter of fact,nowadays,large-scale entertaining and amusement rides have been growing into a branch of leisure industry in China.In order to ensure the safety of the operation of large-scale amusement facilities and means,it is necessary to develop a reliable risk identification and classification criteria at a reasonable level.For the said purpose,we would like to introduce a risk matrix of such amusement rides(risk matrix method,RMM) and risk classification method and bring about a fuzzy fault tree analysis (FFTA) and a 3σ fuzzy feature method for assessing the likely accident probabilities in combination with the fault tree analysis and fuzzy mathematics.At the same time,we have also adopted the information entropy method for evaluating the risk consequences of the large amusement rides in hoping to determine the risk level by the risk matrix method by working out the two aspects of the risk probability and its likely-to-be-involved consequences.According to our research,probability and consequence of the accidents can be found by assessing all the consequences based on the statistical data of loss or damage suffered by the recreational facilities concerned.More specifically speaking,the risk level of large-scale amusement rides can be classified according to the risk model matrix.Through the risk assessment and classification,the predicted evaluation results turn to be well consistent with the the results of actual evaluation practice we have done.Moreover,the method we have developed in this paper is convenient in use and easy to understand,which is beneficial for its practical application.And,finally,according to the fuzzy risk category,it is appropriate to classify the risk faced by the large amusement facilities into five grades,the last of which can be attributed to the lowest one.Therefore,it shows that the classification model of large amusement facilities proves to be in line with the actual situations.