近岸水域船舶溢油应急保障能力评估

为了降低溢油事故对近岸水域造成的影响,提高近岸水域船舶溢油事故应急响应系统的能力,采用结构方程模型,评价船舶溢油应急保障能力。在分析近岸水域船舶溢油应急响应系统影响因素的基础上,构建了船舶溢油应急保障能力评价的指标体系,引入结构方程模型,建立船舶溢油应急保障能力分析的路径模型,分析应急保障变量之间的互动关系及其影响程度,研究其算法,并以实例验证模型的可行性。结果表明,人员保障在溢油应急保障能力中起主导作用,其次是物资保障和技术保障。

Assessment of the emergency tackling capability for oil-shipping spills in the offshore waters

This paper aims to pursue the relationship among the influential factors that are favorable for sustaining the emergency tackling capability and those that affect the crucial function in response to the oil spills by ships in the offshore waters.To achieve the purpose,we have introduced first of all a Structure Equation Model (SEM) for doing such assessments,and,then,organized a literature review and questionnaire files,in addition to the index system for assessing the said emergency tackling database which consist of the financial,physical resources,and the human resources and the corresponding technical facilities in this paper.Based on the analysis of the historical oil spills events at the said waters,we have also defined the characteristic features of the abstract and relevance indicators,the latent variables and the significant variables according to their different cause-effect consequences in the structural forms.In so doing,we have established a relational pathway model to demonstrate the impact and the dynamic interaction between the latent variables and the significant variables.The pathway's coefficients gained from the model can be adopted to clarify the significance of the variables and their impact on the oil spill response sustainability.To validate the feasibility of the method developed,we have presented a case study sample.The results of the above mentioned study of the relationship among the influential factors show that the indicator "human resources support" has to be placed on the primary and crucial position in the emergency sustaining capability for ship oil spills at the offshore waters.And,followed by "the physical resources support" and "the technical support" which are mainly attributed to the communication facilities,stress has also be focused on the oil spills emergency processing facilities,the early-warning technology and the oil processing technology.Thus,from what is discussed above,the paper proves that the SEM model can be used to handle the variables with the characteristic abstract and relevance features of assessing the emergency support capabilities for the ship oil spills.Therefore,the conclusion made above can be expected to offer a reference of emergency sustaining decisionmaking for ship oil spills at the offshore waters and for other similar cases.