中国服务业能源消费CO2排放及其因素分解

基于IPCC温室气体排放清单指南中的CO₂排放因子与核算方法,估算了1995—2010年中国服务业能源消费与CO₂排放量,并对其总体变化趋势进行时间序列分析；以LMDI(对数平均迪氏指数)法辨识与分解3个时段(1995—2000年、2000—2005年和2005—2010年)中影响中国服务业CO₂排放量变动的关键因素及其对CO₂排放量的贡献值. 结果表明:1995—2010年中国服务业能源消费CO₂排放量增长态势明显,累计排放总量为853197.55×104t；服务业能源消费主要依赖于高碳化能源燃料,各年度油品和煤品分别占能源消费总量的67%~74%和5%~27%；LMDI分析结果显示,1995—2010年产业规模和人口效应引起CO₂排放增加量分别为133357.10×104和7691.25×104t,能源效率和能源结构引起CO₂排放减少量分别为59034.50×104和23898.60×104t. 提出CO₂减排对策:①以经济、政策和监管手段促进服务业节能减排；②依托科技创新提高能源综合利用效率,降低服务业CO₂排放量. 

Emissions of CO2from Energy Consumption and Decomposition Analysis in the Service Industry of China

The energy consumption and CO_2emissions in the service industry of China was calculated based on the CO_2emission coefficients and the methods introduced by IPCC in the Guidelines for National Green Gas Inventories (GNGGI) during 1995-2010. The methods of logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) analysis was applied to identify key factors that cause the change of CO_2emission, whose contributions to CO_2emissions during three periods (1995-2000,0-2005and 2005-2010) were also estimated respectively. Time-series analysis showed a strong overall rising trend for the service industry, in which total CO_2emission was 853,7.55×104t during 1995-2010. The energy consumption of the service industry mainly relied on the energy fuels with high carbonation such as oil and coal products which contributed for 67%-74% and 5%-27% of all energy consumption respectively; Industry scale and population effect raised CO₂emissions by 133,7.10×104and 7,1.25×104t, while energy efficiency and structure reduced CO₂emissions by 59,4.50×104and 23,8.60×104t. Relevant recommendations were suggested according to the analyzed results, which mainly includes the establishment of a “reversed mechanism” by economic, political and regulatory controls, and the full support to technological innovation to enhance the energy efficiency and to reduce CO_2emission of the service industry of China.