土地城镇化与人口城镇化的非协调性和互动关系

土地城镇化与人口城镇化失调是我国目前城镇化进程中的一个突出问题。但对各地区土地城镇化与人口城镇化的非协调性进行全面系统分析的研究相对较少。此外,鲜有研究对土地城镇化与人口城镇化之间的互动关系进行实证检验。本研究利用我国2005—2013年间的省级面板数据考察各省级行政区土地城镇化与人口城镇化的非协调性,并通过构建和估计面板向量自回归模型探究土地城镇化与人口城镇化之间的互动关系。研究发现,土地城镇化与人口城镇化的非协调性存在着显著的时空差异。在样本期的后半段(2009—2013年),多个省级行政区人口城镇化滞后于土地城镇化的程度有所加深。根据全样本期内土地城镇化与人口城镇化非协调性的严重程度,可将各省级行政区划分为5个等级。城镇常住人口变化对建成区面积变化具有显著的正向影响;建成区面积变化对城镇常住人口变化的影响方向虽然为正,但该影响不具有统计显著性。从而表明人口城镇化对土地城镇化起到了推动作用,但土地城镇化却未能有效地带动和促进人口城镇化。此外,第二、三产业增加值变化对城镇常住人口变化具有显著的正向影响。研究从改革新增建设用地指标分配方式、抑制城市空间粗放扩张及推动户籍制度改革和基本公共服务均等化等方面提出了促进土地城镇化和人口城镇化协调发展的政策建议。

Incoordination between urban expansion and urban population growth and their interaction

The incoordination between urban expansion and urban population growth is a major problem in China's current urbanization process.However, relatively few scholars have investigated the incoordination between urban expansion and urban population growth in various regions comprehensively and systematically, and relatively little empirical attention has been paid to the interaction between urban expansion and urban population growth.This research examined the incoordination between urban expansion and urban population growth in various provincial-level divisions using provincial-level data in China in the period 2005-2013.This study also explored the interaction between urban expansion and urban population growth by developing and estimating panel vector autoregressive model.The research findings suggested that there was significant temporal and regional variations in the incoordination between urban expansion and urban population growth.The degree of urban population growth lagging behind of urban expansion became higher in many provincial-level divisions in the second subsample period (2009-2013).The various provincial-level divisions could be classified into five categories according to the extent of the incoordination between urban expansion and urban population growth.Urban population changes had a positive and statistically significant effect on the changes in built-up area.Although the changes in built-up area had a positive effect on urban population changes, the effect was not statistically significant.Thus, the research findings suggested that urban population growth could promote urban expansion, but urban expansion was not able to effectively push forward urban population growth.It is also found that the changes in the value-added of the secondary and tertiary industries had a positive and statistically significant effect on urban population growth.The paper put forward policy suggestions including reform of quota allocation for newly-developed construction land, restricting of extensive urban expansion, reform of household registration system and equalization of basic public services, thus promoting coordinated development of urban population growth and urban expansion in China.