基于能值的中国农业绿色经济增长与空间收敛

构造合理的评价指标,对农业绿色经济增长现状及其演变进行客观评估与分析,是实现传统农业向绿色农业转变,促进农业经济可持续发展的迫切要求。本文基于能值理论,对2003—2014年中国及各省域单元农业绿色GDP进行了测算,在此基础上,利用空间分析方法研究我国农业绿色经济增长的空间格局与收敛特征。结果表明:1相较于传统农业GDP,中国人均农业绿色GDP增长相对缓慢,农业绿色GDP占农业传统GDP的比重在80%—85%之间,并呈下降趋势。2我国农业绿色经济增长存在显著的空间集聚,且集聚效应逐渐增强。3人均农业绿色GDP并未打破传统经济增长东部高、西部低的整体格局。东部经济发达地区更高的农业生产效率和西部相对粗放的生产方式是形成这种空间格局的主要原因。4农业人均绿色GDP的收敛分析适用于空间误差自回归模型,考虑了空间自相关因素后得出的收敛速度快于普通收敛分析的收敛速度。因此,准确评价农业经济增长水平需要充分考虑农业增长中的资源环境代价。在今后的发展过程中,我国应实施差别化的农业绿色发展政策,经济发达地区需要进一步减少农业经济增长中的资源环境成本,在继续扩大高增长优势下,促进农业发展的绿色转型。而欠发达地区则应在稳定粮食生产的同时更加注重生态环境保护,努力实现整体跨越式发展。各地区还应加快现代农业技术的转移与扩散,通过增强技术知识的空间溢出效应来提高农业绿色经济增长的收敛速度,尤其是农业发展落后地区应加强与先进地区的交流合作,大力引进先进的农业生产技术与管理经验,提升人力资本水平,以逐步缩小差距,促进农业绿色经济的协调发展。

Green economy growth of agriculture and its spatial convergence inChina based on energy analytic approach

Scientific evaluation index for agricultural green economy growth to objectively evaluate and analyze its condition and evolution is essential for the transition from traditional agriculture to green agriculture and promote the sustainable development of agricultural economy in China.Based on the energy theory, this paper provided an integrated study on calculating the green GDP of agriculture for 31 provinces of China from 2003 to 2014.Spatial analysis approach was used to investigate the spatial characteristic and regional convergence of green economy growth of agriculture in China.The results showed that:①the growth of per-capita green GDP of agriculture was slower than that of per-capita traditional GDP of agriculture.The proportion of green GDP to traditional GDP of agriculture was between 80% and 85%, which performed a decreasing trend.②The spatial pattern of per-capita green GDP of agriculture presented a significant trend of spatial auto-correlation, which were increasingly stronger.③The pattern of per-capita green GDP of agriculture was the same as that of traditional agricultural economy on the whole, which basically presented the pattern of higher growth in the east but lower in the west.The main reasons for the pattern were the higher agricultural production efficiency of eastern economically developed regions relative to the extensive mode of western production.④The spatial convergence analysis suggested that spatial autoregressive error model could be applied to per-capita green GDP of agriculture.Taking into account the spatial factors, the convergence rate of spatial autoregressive error model was faster than that of traditional convergence model.Therefore, costs of resources and environment need to be considered to accurately evaluate the agricultural economy.Finally, we suggested that differential policies for agricultural green growth should be planned in the future development of China.In the developed areas of China, resources and environment cost of agricultural economic growth should be further reduced, and the advantages of high-speed growth should be expanded to promote the green transformation of agriculture.In the underdeveloped areas, we should make efforts to both stabilize grain production and protect the ecological environment, so as to realize the great-leap-forward development. Meanwhile, the whole regions should speed up the transfer and diffusion of agricultural technology, and improve the convergence speed of agricultural green economic growth by enhancing spatial spillover effect of technology. Regions where the agricultural development is backward, ought to strengthen exchanges and cooperation with advanced areas and introduce advanced production technology and management experience, in order to improve the level of human capital, narrow the gap and promote the coordinated development of agricultural green economy.