基于城镇化的居民生活能源消费碳排放门限效应分析

正确认识城镇化发展中碳减排的阶段性特征和应对我国城镇化进程中的碳排放挑战,具有重要的理论参考价值和现实指导意义。现有研究较少关注城镇化发展对居民生活能源消费碳排放的影响,未能将城镇化自身阶段性变化对生活碳排放的影响联系起来。基于此,本文以城镇化率作为门限变量,以生活能源结构、居民消费率、产业结构分别作为解释变量,构建多个不同视角的门限-STIRPAT扩展模型,深入分析城镇化水平处于不同阶段时,居民生活能源消费碳排放所受影响的差异性。研究表明,城市化率分别处于门限值(0.250、0.325和0.457)前后时,居民生活能源消费碳排放所受影响出现了阶段性的变化。当城镇化率低于0.250时,能源结构、居民消费率和产业结构对居民生活能源消费碳排放均呈负向弹性关系,分别为-0.688、-0.570、-0.570;当城市化率低于0.457时,能源结构、居民消费率和产业结构对居民生活能源消费碳排放的负向弹性关系仍然存在,但相关关系明显减弱,能源结构负向弹性关系介于(-0.338,-0.019),居民消费率和产业结构负向弹性关系为-0.251。当城市化率超过0.457时,能源结构、居民消费率和产业结构对居民生活能源消费碳排放已逐步显现或转变为正向弹性关系。基于上述研究结果提出相应建议:区域城镇化发展介于(0.250,0.457]这一阶段的进程中,应把握住能源结构、居民消费率和产业结构对居民生活能源消费碳排放影响效应转变之前的阶段,鼓励居民生活消费,但进行节能低碳生活方式的引导,大力发展第三产业,满足居民对生活商品及服务的需求。当区域城镇化提升至0.457以上时,应合理优化能源结构,提高非化石能源比重,通过财政政策等对居民生活消费进行调控和引导,注重第三产业中的科技、金融等技术密集型的行业发展。

Threshold effect analysis on carbon emissions ofhousehold energy consumption based on urbanization

It is of significant reference guidance value and to recognize the stage characteristics of carbon emission reduction and to deal with the challenges of carbon emissions in urbanization.Little existing research focuses on the impact on carbon emissions of households consumption(CEHC) caused by urbanization, and fails to connect the relationship between CEHC and the stage characteristics of urbanization.This article took urbanization rate as the threshold variable, and the energy structure, citizen consumption rate and industrial structure were regarded as explaining variables.Threshold-STIRPAT extension model was built based to analyze the impact of various factors on domestic energy consumption carbon emissions at different urbanization levels.The research shows when the urbanization rate is close to the threshold values(0.250, 0.325 and 0.457),the effect to CEHC was in the staggered variation.When the urbanization rate is lower than 0.250, it shows a negative elasticity relation between CEHC and the factors such as energy structure, domestic consumption, and industrial structure, with values of -0.688, -0.570 and -0.570, respectively.When the urbanization rate is lower than 0.457, the negative elasticity relation still exists.However, when the correlation is decreasing and the negative elasticity relation of energy structure is between -0.338 and -0.019, the relation of household consumption rate and industrial structure are all -0.251.When the urbanization rate is higher than 0.457, the relations will gradually turn into the positive elasticity relation.We propose the following suggestion based on the research results.When the urbanization rate is in this stage (0.250,0.457], the energy structure,household consumption rate and industrial structure still have a negative effect on CEHC.We should encourage urban household consumption in energy-saving pattern, and promote the tertiary industry to satisfy the residents' demands of commodity and service.When the urbanization rate is higher than 0.457, we should optimize the energy structure and improve the proportion of non-fossil energy.Besides, the regions can regulate and guide the urban household consumption by fiscal policy, and we should pay attention to technology, finance and other technology-intensive sectors in the tertiary industry.