全要素生产率框架下的城市资本要素生产率分析

已有的文献基本上都是关注全要素生产率的研究,很少在全要素生产率的框架下识别每一种投入要素对经济增长的贡献和影响。本文在Chang et al 2012年提出的ISP方法的基础上,突破了其模型规模报酬不变的限制,采用投入导向的SBM模型对Luenberger生产率指数进行改进,在全要素生产率的框架下测算资本、劳动力和土地要素的生产率指数,识别每一种投入要素对全要素生产率的贡献和影响。经研究发现,城市全要素生产率变化主要是资本要素生产率驱动的,提升城市全要素生产率的关键是提升资本要素生产率。本文还从经济发展水平、城市规模、产业结构、市场化程度、人力资本积累、政府规模、投资率、财政科技支出、FDI、基础设施建设等多个方面分析了影响城市资本要素生产率的因素。研究结论主要有:11998—2013年间,中国城市全要素生产率累计下降了23.03%,其中资本要素生产率累计下降了60.71%,不同区域、不同层级、不同类型城市的资本要素生产率存在明显的差异;2城市规模、市场化程度、人力资本积累、FDI资本存量和投资率是影响城市资本要素生产率的主要因素,其中,规模较大的城市占据各方面的优势,能够更好地改进资本要素生产率。市场化的推进和人力资本积累有利于资本生产率的改进,符合经济发展的一般规律。FDI资本存量通过技术溢出效应和示范效应等能推进东道国技术进步和生产率提高;3投资率与资本要素生产率负相关,印证了Krugman随着投资率走高会出现资本边际报酬递减以及资本要素生产率下降的问题的观点;4第二产业占比与资本生产率正相关,而第三产业占比与资本生产率负相关,说明当前中国的居民消费结构层次总体上还比较低,强制推进二三产业间的结构升级只能造成供需结构匹配程度更低、愈加损失效率。短期内中国产业结构升级的方向应该为第二产业内部的调整升级。

Research on the urban capital factor productivity under the framework of TFP

Most of the existing literature focuses on the TFP,and rarely pay attention to each input factor productivity.On the basis of ISP proposed by Chang et al (2012), we break through the limitation of CRS.Combining with SBM distance function and LPI, this article measured the capital factor productivity, the labor factor productivity and the land factor productivity index under the framework of TFP.The study found that TFP change was mainly driven by capital factor productivity, and to improve the capital factor productivity was the key to improve TFP.In this paper, we analyzed the influencing factors of capital factor productivity change, from the aspects of the level of economic development, urban scale, industrial structure, the degree of marketization, human capital accumulation, government scale, investment, R&D spending, FDI and infrastructure construction.The main conclusions were as follows: ①From 1998 to 2013, China's urban TFP fell by 23.03%, in which capital factor productivity fell by 60.71%;capital factor productivity of different regions, different city levels, different city types were of obvious difference.②The city scale, the degree of marketization, human capital accumulation, the investment rate and FDI capital stock are the main factors affecting the urban capital factor productivity.Larger cities holding many advantages, can better improve the capital factor productivity.The marketization advancement and human capital accumulation are conductive to capital factor productivity, according with the general law of economic development.With the spillover effect and demonstration effect, FDI capital stock promotes China's technological progress and productivity.③Capital deepening making the capital productivity lower, confirms the point view of Krugman that as the investment rate higher the marginal returns of capital diminish and capital factor productivity decline.④The secondary industry proportion is positively related to capital factor productivity, while the tertiary industry proportion is negatively related to capital factor productivity.This illustrates that Chinese residents' consumption structure is still at a low level.To force to promote the secondary industry to upgrade to the third industry can only cause mismatch of the supply and demand, and lower investment efficiency.The direction of China's industrial structure upgrading is the upgrading inside the second industry.