Diffusion of innovative agricultural production systems for sustainable development of small islands: A methodological approach based on the science of complexity

In order to develop small islands, not only must a vital agricultural system be maintained, but the range of opportunities for tourism must be increased with respect to both the seaside and the environmental features of the rural landscape. As an alternative to the traditional and economically declining ones, many innovative production processes can be identified, but their success depends on their interaction with the physical, biological, economic and social environment. In order to identify the main nodes and the most critical interactions, so as to increase the probability of success of a new productive process, a methodological approach based on the science of complexity is proposed for the cultivation of capers (Capparis spinosa L.) on the island of Pantelleria. The methodology encompasses the identification of actors and factors involved. the quantitative evaluation of their interactions with the different stages of the productive process, and a quasiquantitative evaluation of the probability that the particular action will be performed successfully. The study of “traditional,” “modernized,” and “modernized-sustainable” processes, shows that the modernized-sustainable process offers mutually reinforcing opportunities in terms of an integrated development of high-quality agricultural products and the enhancement of environmental features, in conjunction with high-efficiency production techniques, in conjunction with high-efficiency production techniques, in a way that suits the development of Pantelleria. There is a high probability of failure, however, as a result of the large number of critical factors. Nevertheless, the present study indicates which activities will enhance the probability of successful innovation in the production process.