Navigating the Perfect Storm: Research Strategies for Socialecological Systems in a Rapidly Evolving World |
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Authors: | Email author" target="_blank">John?A?DearingEmail author Seth?Bullock Robert?Costanza Terry?P?Dawson Mary?E?Edwards Guy?M?Poppy Graham?M?Smith |
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Institution: | (1) Department of Geography and Environment, University of Southampton, Highfield Campus, Southampton, SO17 1BJ, UK;(2) Department of Electronics and Computer Science, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK;(3) Institute for Sustainable Solutions, Portland State University, Portland, Oregon, USA;(4) Department of Geography, University of Dundee, Dundee, UK;(5) Department of Biological Sciences, University of Southhampton, Southampton, UK;(6) Department of Social Sciences, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK |
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Abstract: | The ‘Perfect Storm’ metaphor describes a combination of events that causes a surprising or dramatic impact. It lends an evolutionary
perspective to how social-ecological interactions change. Thus, we argue that an improved understanding of how social-ecological
systems have evolved up to the present is necessary for the modelling, understanding and anticipation of current and future
social-ecological systems. Here we consider the implications of an evolutionary perspective for designing research approaches.
One desirable approach is the creation of multi-decadal records produced by integrating palaeoenvironmental, instrument and
documentary sources at multiple spatial scales. We also consider the potential for improved analytical and modelling approaches
by developing system dynamical, cellular and agent-based models, observing complex behaviour in social-ecological systems
against which to test systems dynamical theory, and drawing better lessons from history. Alongside these is the need to find
more appropriate ways to communicate complex systems, risk and uncertainty to the public and to policy-makers. |
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