2013年台风决策气象服务浅析

2013年在西北太平洋和南海海域共有31个编号热带气旋生成,其中有9个在中国登陆.2013年台风活动具有生成个数多、登陆个数偏多,登陆强度强、登陆集中在华南,灾害损失重等特点.分析2013年登陆我国的台风气象决策服务情况,发现“天兔”提前5天即给出了明确的登陆预测信息,但与实际情况差异较大;“潭美”、“天兔”和“菲特”台风气象服务效果较好,均提前2天给出了准确的登陆点和强度预报.其中“菲特”作为1949年以来在10月份登陆我国大陆的最强台风,“菲特”台风气象服务开展迅速有力,决策服务启动早,预警信息发布频次高,部门应急联动及时,各级政府防范有力,其造成的人员伤亡及社会影响远轻于以往同类台风.

Analysis the Typhoon Decision-making Meteorological Service in 2013

In 2013, totally 31 tropical cyclones formed over the western North Pacific Ocean and South China Sea. 9 TCs made landfall on China＇ s coastal areas. The number of generation and landing typhoon was bigger; landing strength was bigger than usual; .landing concentrated in south China. By means of analysis of landed typhoon decision-making meteorological services in 2013, it shows that a clear landing information typhoon of ＂Usagi＂ had been forecasted 5 days in advance, but there was big difference between forecast and reality; meteorological services of ＂Trami,＂ ＂ Usagi＂ and ＂Fitow＂ typhoon were comparatively good, with exact landing point and the intensity forecast two days in advance. ＂Fitow＂ is the strongest landed typhoon in mainland China since 1949 in October. Because of effective forecast service, the loss and casualty of the typhoon is much smaller than other typhoons.