一种基于测试数据的单枚导弹贮存寿命评估方法

目的研究单枚导弹的贮存寿命评估问题。方法对导弹状态数据中的定期测试数据进行统计分析，确定测试数据的变化规律，并通过移动标准差概念的引入，探讨测试数据的稳定性。应用多项式最小二乘法拟合对测试数据中表征导弹关键部件的特征参数的移动标准差进行预测。建立了单枚导弹的贮存寿命评估模型，并进行实例分析。结果得出了导弹的贮存稳定性水平。结论验证了该评估模型的合理性。

A Test Data Based Analysis Method for Single Missile Storage Life Evaluation

Objective To investigate the storage life evaluation method for single missile. Methods The regular status test data was statistically analyzed, the variation of the test data was determined. The stability of the test data was discussed through the introduction of the ＂Mobile Standard Deviation （MSD）＂ conception. Results The MSD, which is one of the most important characteristic parameters of the missile, was forecasted with the application polynomial least-squares, the missile storage stability level was calculated, and the single missile storage life evaluation model was established. Conclusion Through the case analysis, the rationality of the evaluation model was validated.