上海市地表水水质近20年的变化

利用1983-1999年的水质监测数据和有关的自然社会经济统计数据，研究了上海市地表水水质近20年的变化，并对影响水质变化的自然社会经济因素进行了探讨，研究发现：（1）上海市近20年的地表水水质变化可分为缓慢恶化，加速恶化和逐渐改善3个阶段，1996年是水质变化趋势的转折点；（2）水质变化主要受人类社会经济活动影响，与水文气象因素相关性较小；93）农牧业，生活污染是影响水质变化的主要因素；（4）农牧业，生活污染的迅速上升趋势受到遏制，工业污染持续减少，而城市污水处理能力呈跳跃式大幅度增长，是水质恶化趋势发生逆转的根本原因；（5）上海市的高度城市化进程在1996年后已转变为地表水水质改善的积极动力和重要原因。

Surface water quality changes in Shanghai City in past 20 years

Based on the monitoring datum of surface water quality and some relative statistics of nature, economy and society, the trend and law of water quality changes and their coupling relationship with development of society and economy were discussed. This paper indicates that: (1) Three phases: slow deterioration, accelerated deterioration and gradual amendment of water quality changes were divided and 1996 were believed to be the turning point. (2) There is only a little relationship existed between precipitation, flux from up stream of Huangpu River and water quality changes. (3) Trend of water quality changes was mainly related with the pollution produced by industry of breed livestock and people living; (4) The great increase of capacity of sewage treatment was the most important factor which contributed the turning point of 1996, while pollution produced by breed livestock and people living were hold back and industry pollution decreased continually. (5) The rapid course of highly urbanization in Shanghai have already changed to be positive factor and impetus which take a important role in water quality improvement after 1996.