Scenario deduction of Natech accident based on dynamic Bayesian network: A case study of landslide accident in a liquor storage tank area in Guizhou Province,China |
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| Institution: | 1. School of Safety Science and Emergency Management, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan, Hubei, 430070, China;2. Guizhou Institute for Labor Protection Science and Technology, Zunyi, Guizhou, 563000, China;3. China Academy of Safety Science and Technology, Beijing, 100012, China;1. State Key Laboratory of Fire Science, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, 230026, China;2. School of Mechanical Engineering, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN, 47907-2088, USA;3. College of Safety Science and Engineering, Nanjing Tech University, Nanjing, 211816, China;1. “Ilie Murgulescu” Institute of Physical Chemistry, Romanian Academy, 202 Spl. Independentei, 060021, Bucharest, Romania;2. Physikalisch-Technische Bundesanstalt (PTB), 100 Bundesallee, 38116, Braunschweig, Germany;1. Department of Safety Engineering, College of Mechanical and Electrical Engineering, Beijing University of Chemical Technology, Beijing, 100029, China;2. University Gustave Eiffel, UPEC, CNRS, Laboratory Multi Scale Modeling and Simulation, (MSME/UMR 8208), 5 bd Descartes, 77454, Marne-la-Vallee, France;3. Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Hazardous Chemicals Safety and Control, College of Safety Science and Engineering, Nanjing Tech University, Nanjing, 211816, Jiangsu, China;4. Process Safety and Disaster Prevention Laboratory, National Yunlin University of Science and Technology, Douliou, Yunlin, 64002, Taiwan, ROC;1. School of Safety Science and Engineering, Xi''an University of Science and Technology, Xi''an Shaanxi 710054, China;2. Postdoctoral Research Mobile Station in Mining Engineering, Xi''an University of Science and Technology, Xi''an, Shaanxi 710054, China;3. Postdoctoral Program, Xi’ an University of Science and Technology, 58, Yanta Mid. Rd., Xi’ an, Shaanxi 710054, China;1. Institute of Safety Science and Engineering, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou, 510640, China;2. Department of Chemical Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, University of Malaya, 50603, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia;3. Institute of Ocean and Earth Sciences, C308, Institute for Advanced Studies Building, University of Malaya, 50603, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia;4. Centre for Dryland Agriculture, Bayero University, P.M.B. 3011, Kano, Nigeria |
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| Abstract: | Industrial technical accidents caused by natural disasters are defined as Natech accidents, such as earthquakes and landslides, which can cause tremendous damage to industrial storage tanks, and lead to accidental leakage and even serious fire and explosion accidents. In this study, a landslide-induced storage tank accident model under earthquake disasters was proposed, and the relationship between landslide mass impact and target impact resistance was taken into account. Also, tank failure and the formation of the pool fire were considered to be the consequences of the Natech accident. Through scenario deduction, the dynamic process of landslide Natech was transformed qualitatively into a disaster chain network diagram composed of a scenario state, a disaster-causing factor and emergency management. The Bayesian network was used to learn and deduce the parameters of the network diagram, and in this process, the prior probability and conditional probability of nodes were obtained primarily by Monte Carlo simulation, and by an improved expert scoring method based on the fuzzy set theory. Through visualization software, the sensitivity analysis of landslide Natech was achieved. Finally, a case study of a liquor storage tank area in Guizhou Province, China was carried out, and the results show that a large amount of hazardous material leakage caused by buckling is key to the formation of pool fire accidents, and several prevention measures for earthquake-induced landslide Natech was proposed according to the sensitivity analysis. |
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| Keywords: | Landslide Scenario deduction Bayesian network Liquor storage tank |
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